doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1607.16153
RegCM3 CORDEX东亚试验模拟和预估的中国夏季温度变化

Simulated and Projected Surface Air Temperature over China in RegCM3 CORDEX East Asia Experiments
摘要点击 685  全文点击 578  投稿时间:2016-03-30  修订日期:2016-07-21
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基金:  公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201506012,国家自然科学基金项目41420104006、41330423,气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题KLME1505,江苏省气候变化协同创新中心项目
中文关键词:  夏季地表气温  极端高温事件  区域模式  气候变化
英文关键词:  Summer surface air temperature  Extreme high-temperature events  Regional climate model  Climate change
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
李东欢LI Donghuan中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
周天军ZHOU Tianjun中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
邹立维ZOU Liwei中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京 100029;南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044
马双梅MA Shuangmei中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
引用:李东欢,周天军,邹立维,马双梅.2017.RegCM3 CORDEX东亚试验模拟和预估的中国夏季温度变化[J].大气科学,41(3):544-560.,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1607.16153.
Citation:LI Donghuan,ZHOU Tianjun,ZOU Liwei,MA Shuangmei.2017.Simulated and Projected Surface Air Temperature over China in RegCM3 CORDEX East Asia Experiments[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),41(3):544-560.,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1607.16153.
中文摘要:
      按照CORDEX(COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment)计划试验设计要求,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所全球模式FGOALS-g2的数据驱动区域气候模式RegCM3,针对1986~2005年历史气候和2010~2065年RCP8.5排放情景下气候预估,对东亚地区进行了50 km动力降尺度模拟。首先评估了RegCM3模式及驱动模式FGOALS-g2对1986~2005年夏季中国地表气温和极端高温事件的模拟能力,然后比较了两个模式在RCP8.5排放情景下对中国夏季地表气温和极端高温事件预估的变化,重点分析了动力降尺度结果的优势。结果表明,两个模式均能合理再现夏季中国地表气温和极端高温事件的大尺度气候态特征。相对于全球模式,区域模式由于水平分辨率较高,能在刻画地表气温分布的细节上体现出优势。在RCP8.5排放情景下,两个模式预估的三个地表气温指标均显著升高,到21世纪中期(2046~2065年),两个模式预估的全国平均地表气温增幅相当,气温日较差变化均较小。在FGOALS-g2模式预估中,到21世纪中期,三个地表气温指标的增幅相当,气温日较差没有明显变化,东北和青藏高原的地表气温增幅最大。在RegCM3模式预估中,到21世纪中期,中国大部分地区日最高气温(Tmax)增幅大于日最低气温(Tmin)增幅,气温日较差增加;而在青藏高原西部,Tmax的增幅较Tmin偏低,气温日较差减小。在RCP8.5排放情景下,两个模式预估的极端高温事件到21世纪中期也显著增加,RegCM3模式预估的极端高温事件全国平均增幅略高于FGOALS-g2模式的预估。在两个模式的预估中,日最高气温最大值(TXx)、暖昼指数(TX90p)和持续暖期指数(WSDI)变化的空间分布特征与Tmax相似;和当代相比TX90p增加了60%以上,而WSDI增加了一倍以上。
Abstract:
      The regional climate model (version 3, RegCM3) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was employed to downscale the historical climate change and projected its future scenario over CORDEX (COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) East Asian domain. Model RegCM3 was nested within the global climate system model FGOALS-g2. The simulation of summer surface air temperature and extreme high-temperature events over China was evaluated first, and summer surface air temperature changes under the RCP8.5 scenario over China were then compared between model RegCM3 and model FGOALS-g2. Results indicate that both models reasonably reproduced the climatological distribution of surface air temperature and extreme high-temperature events. Compared to the driving global climate model, the detailed characteristics of summer surface air temperature were better simulated in model RegCM3 due to its high horizontal resolution. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, summer surface air temperature over China will increase significantly during the middle of the 21st century. In the projection of model FGOALS-g2, the spatial patterns of the changes in the three temperature indices were similar with larger increases over northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, the range of changes in daily temperature is small in model FGOALS-g2. However, model RegCM3 projected a larger increase in daily maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to the increase in daily minimum temperature (Tmin) over most regions of China, thereby daily temperature range would become large in these regions. In the western Tibetan Plateau, the projected increase in Tmin was larger than that in Tmax and daily temperature range became smaller. Extreme high-temperature events were projected to increase significantly in both models. Warm days (TX90p) will increase more than 60% compared to present day, while the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) will become twice of that of present day.
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