doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1612.16218
基于国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Aerosol Concentrations in Eastern China Based on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) Datasets
摘要点击 604  全文点击 479  投稿时间:2016-08-19  
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基金:  国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2014CB441200,国家自然科学基金项目41475137、91544219
中文关键词:  ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project)  气候变化  人为气溶胶  PM2.5
英文关键词:  ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project)  Climate change  Anthropogenic aerosol  PM2.5
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
刘瑞金LIU Ruijin中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
廖宏LIAO Hong南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院, 南京 210044
常文渊CHANG Wenyuan中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
张天航ZHANG Tianhang中国气象局国家气象中心, 北京 100081
靳少非JIN Shaofei中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所湿地生态与环境重点实验室, 长春 130102
引用:刘瑞金,廖宏,常文渊,张天航,靳少非.2017.基于国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响[J].大气科学,41(4):739-751,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1612.16218.
Citation:LIU Ruijin,LIAO Hong,CHANG Wenyuan,ZHANG Tianhang,JIN Shaofei.2017.Impact of Climate Change on Aerosol Concentrations in Eastern China Based on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) Datasets[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),41(4):739-751,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1612.16218.
中文摘要:
      气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用“国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划”(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project,ACCMIP)中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化导致中国北部地区(31°N~45°N,105°E~122°E)硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28%、21%和9%,硝酸盐气溶胶在中国东部地区减少30%。气候变化对细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征,冬季PM2.5浓度在中国东部减少15%,这主要是由硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季的显著减少造成的;夏季PM2.5浓度在中国北部地区增加16%,而长江以南地区减少为9%,这可能与模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流的增强有关。
Abstract:
      Changes in surface layer aerosol concentrations induced by climate change are important for understanding regional air quality. In this study, the impact of climate change on surface-layer aerosol concentrations over East Asia were investigated using multi-model results from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2000-2100. With anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors kept at year 2000 levels, the annual mean concentrations of surface-layer sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon over northern China (31°N-45°N, 105°E-122°E) were simulated to increase by 28%, 21%, and 9%, respectively, owing to climate change over 2000-2100. Compared to that in 2000, annual mean surface-layer nitrate concentration in 2100 over eastern China was simulated to decrease by 30% by climate change alone. The climate-induced changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations were simulated to have large seasonal variation. Due to significant decreases in nitrate concentrations in the winter, wintertime PM2.5 concentrations over eastern China were simulated to decrease by 15% over 2000-2100. Furthermore, the changes in summertime PM2.5 concentrations during 2000-2100 were found to have different patterns in northern and southern China; PM2.5 concentrations in northern China would increase by 16%, while those in southern China would decrease by 9%.
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