doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1707.17144
2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷的高分辨快速更新同化预报与分析1

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Analysis and Prediction of the Tornado Occurring in Funing on 23 June 2016
摘要点击 356  全文点击 195  投稿时间:2017-03-27  
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基金:  国家重点研发计划“政府间国际科技创新合作”重点专项2016YFE0109700,国家自然科学基金项目41575101、41505087
中文关键词:  龙卷  数值预报  螺旋度  快速更新
英文关键词:  Tornado  Numerical prediction  Helicity  Rapid refresh
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
李佳LI Jia南京信息工程大学, 南京 210044;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室, 上海 200030
陈葆德CHEN Baode中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室, 上海 200030
张旭ZHANG Xu中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室, 上海 200030
黄伟HUANG Wei中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室, 上海 200030
引用:李佳,陈葆德,张旭,黄伟.2017.2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷的高分辨快速更新同化预报与分析1[J].大气科学,41(6):1221-1233,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1707.17144.
Citation:LI Jia,CHEN Baode,ZHANG Xu,HUANG Wei.2017.High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Analysis and Prediction of the Tornado Occurring in Funing on 23 June 2016[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),41(6):1221-1233,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1707.17144.
中文摘要:
      基于3 km水平分辨率的第二代华东快速更新循环同化预报模式系统,对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷个例预报结果进行了分析,通过螺旋度的时间演变等讨论了龙卷母体—对流单体的发展过程,并对比了有无同化的预报结果。结果表明,快速更新循环同化系统在阜宁附近模拟出了类似龙卷母体的涡旋结构,同时伴随有剧烈的上升运动,模拟的发生时间与发展过程与实况基本吻合。但模拟的涡旋发生在江苏阜宁北侧,与观测相比偏差20多公里,且最大地面风速较实况小。进一步分析表明,该对流单体从中层上升运动开始,随着上升区向上和向下发展,首先在中高空出现剧烈的上升运动,z螺旋度增大,高层辐散加强,x螺旋度增大,随后中低空的垂直运动也增强,y螺旋度增大,低层辐合增强,最后随着高层辐散和垂直运动的减弱,低层涡旋减弱并消散。北京时间14:00没有进行观测资料同化预报结果中,在阜宁附近没有预报出类似的对流单体,表明逐小时循环同化对此次龙卷天气的模拟起着关键作用。
Abstract:
      The tornado occurring on June 23 2016 in Funing County, Jiangsu Province was simulated using the operational Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System. The parent storm of the tornado was identified near Funing in the model output, which occurred in the area with very strong convective activities. Its development and timing agreed well with observations. However, the simulated vortex was 20 km north of its observed location with weaker surface winds. Further analysis indicated that a supercell was initialized within the updraft in the middle level prior to the occurrence of the storm, and extended upward and downward following the expansion of the updraft. With significantly enhanced updraft and increased z-helicity in the middle and upper levels, the x-helicity started to increase along with the intensified divergence in the upper level. In lower levels, the updraft and convergence both strengthened and the y-helicity increased. Following the weakening of divergence and updraft in the upper level, the cyclonic vortex eventually diminished and dissipated. In a comparative simulation without rapid data refresh, the supercell didn't exist, suggesting that the hourly data assimilation played a key role in successful simulation of the tornado.
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