doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1708.17140
影响广东省的热带气旋特征分析及灾害损失研究

Characteristics Analysis and Assessment of Economic Damages Caused by Tropical Cyclones in Guangdong Province
摘要点击 1072  全文点击 794  投稿时间:2017-03-23  
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基金:  国家重点研发计划项目2016YFA0602703,国家自然科学基金项目41575001,广东省普通高校国家级重大培育项目201512003QX,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室项目2017-FX-03
中文关键词:  热带气旋灾害  损失  综合灾情指数  广东
英文关键词:  Tropical cyclone disaster  Loss  Comprehensive disaster index  Guangdong
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
丑洁明CHOU Jieming北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
班靖晗BAN Jinghan北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
董文杰DONG Wenjie北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;中山大学大气科学学院, 广州 519082
胡川叶HU Chuanye北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
代如锋DAI Rufeng北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
引用:丑洁明,班靖晗,董文杰,胡川叶,代如锋.2018.影响广东省的热带气旋特征分析及灾害损失研究[J].大气科学,42(2):357-366,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1708.17140.
Citation:CHOU Jieming,BAN Jinghan,DONG Wenjie,HU Chuanye,DAI Rufeng.2018.Characteristics Analysis and Assessment of Economic Damages Caused by Tropical Cyclones in Guangdong Province[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),42(2):357-366,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1708.17140.
中文摘要:
      本文基于1990~2015年影响广东省的热带气旋(Tropical cyclone,TC)数据,分析了影响广东省TC的时空特征、灾情年际变化以及灾害强度特征等。并利用灾害指标核算出灾害损失的经济价值,改进综合灾情指数模型。主要得出以下结论:26年来登陆广东省的TC共93个(占登陆我国TC总数的29.6%),其中有67个对广东省造成了人员伤亡或者经济损失;影响广东省TC频次整体随时间变化不大,强度低的TC频次随年际呈现较为明显地减少变化趋势,而强度高的TC频次呈现较为明显的逐年上升趋势;粤西与珠江三角洲地区受TC侵袭频次明显高于粤东和粤北地区;热带气旋各项灾情指标造成的经济损失(以2015年为可比价)均在1997年出现转折,经济损失急速下滑;各项损失相对值与TC强度之间存在较好的指数正相关关系,低强度等级的热带气旋造成的综合灾情指数呈现较为明显的年际减小趋势,而高强度等级的热带气旋变化趋势不显著。
Abstract:
      Using tropical cyclone (TC) data in Guangdong Province from 1990-2015, characteristics and spatial-temporal variations of disasters caused by tropical cyclones are analyzed in this paper. The economic loss is calculated by using the disaster index, and the comprehensive disaster index model is improved. The conclusions are as follows. There are 93 TCs landing in Guangdong Province during 1990-2015, which account for 29.6% of the total landings nationwide, and 67 out of the 93 TCs have caused casualties and economic losses in Guangdong Province. The frequency of TC occurrence has little changes with time, whereas TCs of low-intensity show an obvious decreasing trend and TCs of high-intensity show an obvious increasing trend during the study period. TC occurrence in West Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta area is obviously higher than that in East and North Guangdong. Using the situation in 2015 as a reference to convert the loss index, it is found that the economic losses corresponding to each index all have a turning point in 1997, since when the economic losses have decreased greatly. There is an exponential relationship between the relative loss and TC intensity, which are positively correlated with each other. The low-intensity TCs show an obvious decreasing trend on the interannual scale, while the decreasing trend of high-intensity TCs is not significant.
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