doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1706.16167
基于CCSM4.0长期积分试验评估不同辐射强迫对中国干旱半干旱区降水的影响

Effects of Radiative Forcings on Precipitation over Arid and Semi-arid Region in China based on CCSM4.0 Simulation
摘要点击 905  全文点击 54  投稿时间:2016-04-29  修订日期:2017-04-17
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基金:  国家重点研发项目(编号:2016YFA0600402)和国家自然科学基金项目(41675094, 91425304和91525101),国家自然科学基金
中文关键词:  辐射强迫作用,CCSM4.0模式,降水,干旱半干旱区
英文关键词:  Effects of radiative forcings, Precipitation, CCSM 4.0 model, Arid and semi-arid region
     
作者中文名作者英文名单位
赵天保ZHAO Tianbao中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室
从靖CONG Jing兰州大学大气科学学院
引用:赵天保,从靖.2018.基于CCSM4.0长期积分试验评估不同辐射强迫对中国干旱半干旱区降水的影响[J].大气科学
Citation:ZHAO Tianbao,CONG Jing.2018.Effects of Radiative Forcings on Precipitation over Arid and Semi-arid Region in China based on CCSM4.0 Simulation[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      本文基于气候系统模式CESM4.0长期积分试验,分析评估了工业革命前(1850年)及当前(2000年)两种辐射强迫作用(主要包括太阳活动和温室气体)对中国北方干旱半干旱区降水的影响。结果表明,模拟结果与观测之间尽管存在一定的偏差,但仍能再现降水气候态的空间分布以及季节变化特征;两种辐射强迫下的降水长期变化均无明显趋势,但二者的差异却呈现出70~100年的准周期振荡;由人类活动引起的当前辐射强迫作用对降水的多年际变率幅度有一定影响,造成极端强降水事件出现的概率增多,而由太阳活动引起的辐射强迫作用主要对降水多年代际周期具有一定的调制作用。进一步分析表明,两种辐射强迫下中国北方干旱半干旱区降水年多年代际变率的主要模态基本一致,但人类活动引起的辐射强迫作用会影响降水多年代际变率与热带海温异常的相互作用的强度,从而改变降水多年代际变率的幅度。
Abstract:
      Based on the long-term simulations conducted by the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4.0) forced by preindustrial (1850) and present (2000) radiative forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases and aerosols, solar, and volcanic aerosols), the effects of the radiative forcings on precipitation over arid-semiarid regions in China are investigated. The result shows that the model simulations can well capture the spatial pattern as well as the seasonal variation of the long-term mean precipitation in observations despite certain bias between the simulations and the observations. There are little differences of long-term precipitation trends between the simulations forced by the preindustrial and present radiations, while the regional mean difference between two simulated precipitations shows a quasi-periodic change about 70-100 years. The present radiative forced simulation display a larger amplitude in multi-decadal variations and clear increase in the frequency of heavy and extreme precipitation. However, the preindustrial radiation forced precipitation just shows a quasi-periodic variation about 100 years likely related to the solar magnetic activity cycle. Further analysis shows that the leading modes of precipitation multi-decadal variability forced by the preindustrial radiation are nearly consistent with those forced by the present radiation, while the present radiative forcing related to human activities can affect the interaction of the precipitation multi-decadal variability with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, which in turn modulates the amplitude of the precipitation multi-decadal variability over arid-semiarid regions in China.
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