doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1612.16218
基于国际大气化学-气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响

Impact of climate change on aerosol concentrations in eastern China based on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) DatasetsLIU Ruijin1,2, LIAO Hong3,CHANG Wenyuan1, ZHANG Tianhang4, JIN Shaofei5
摘要点击 765  全文点击 44  投稿时间:2016-08-19  最后修改时间:2016-11-30
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基金:  国家重点基础研究发展计划
中文关键词:  ACCMIP, 气候变化,人为气溶胶,PM2.5
英文关键词:  ACCMIP, climate  change, anthropogenic  aerosol, PM2.5
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
刘瑞金Liu Rui-Jin中国科学院大气物理研究所
廖宏Liao Hong南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院
常文渊中国科学院大气物理研究所
张天航
靳少非
引用:刘瑞金,廖宏,常文渊,张天航,靳少非.2017.基于国际大气化学-气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响[J].大气科学
Citation:Liu Rui-Jin,Liao Hong.2017.Impact of climate change on aerosol concentrations in eastern China based on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) DatasetsLIU Ruijin1,2, LIAO Hong3,CHANG Wenyuan1, ZHANG Tianhang4, JIN Shaofei5[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      本文利用“国际大气化学-气候模式比较计划”(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project,ACCMIP)中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化会导致硫酸盐、有机碳气溶胶年平均浓度在中国北部地区(105oE~122oE, 31oN~45oN)增加1~2 μg m-3,黑碳气溶胶浓度增加约0.5 μg m-3。相对于2000年的浓度,硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28.9%、21.2%和9.6%。硝酸盐气溶胶年平均浓度在中国东部减少1~2 μg m-3(?30~?40%)。气候变化对PM2.5浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征。冬季PM2.5浓度在中国东部减少4~6 μg m-3,这主要是因为硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季显著减少,硝酸盐浓度的减少约占PM2.5浓度变化的70%。受模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流增强的影响,PM2.5浓度在夏季的变化有明显的南北差异,中国北部地区浓度增加5~6 μg m-3,而长江以南地区减少3~4 μg m-3
Abstract:
      We investigate the impact of climate change between 2000~2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario on surface-layer aerosol concentrations over East Asia based on multi-model results from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Our analyses indicate that when anthropogenic aerosol emissions are kept at their 2000 year values, climate change alone could lead to an increase in annual mean concentrations of surface-layer sulfate and organic carbon by 1~2 μg m-3in northern China, and the increase in surface-layer black carbon concentration is about 0.5 μg m-3. Compared with the surface-layer aerosol concentrations simulated in year 2000, the relative changes in sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon concentrations over 2000-2100 are 28.9%, 21.2%, and 9.6%, respectively. The change in annual mean surface-layer nitrate concentration over eastern China is 1~2 μg m-3(?30~?40%). The climate-induced changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations have large seasonal variations. Due to the significant future decreases in nitrate concentrations in wintertime, the 2000-2100 changes in PM2.5 concentrations show decreases of 4~6 μg m-3 over eastern China in wintertime. The changes in PM2.5 concentrations in summertime have different patterns over north and south parts of China. Future climate change lead to increases in PM2.5 concentrations by 5~6 μg m-3 in northern China whereas decreases of 3~4 μg m-3 in southern China.
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