doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1708.17140
影响广东省热带气旋特征分析及灾害损失研究

A characteristics analysis and assessment of economic damage of Tropical cyclones during 1990-2015 in Guangdong, China
摘要点击 851  全文点击 64  投稿时间:2017-03-23  修订日期:2017-06-16
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基金:  高校基金,国家自然科学基金,国家重点基础研究发展计划
中文关键词:  热带气旋灾害  损失  综合灾情指数  广东
英文关键词:  tropical cyclone disaster  loss  comprehensive disaster index  Guangdong
     
作者中文名作者英文名单位
丑洁明Chou Jieming地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室/北京师范大学地理学部
班靖晗Ban Jinghan地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室/北京师范大学地理学部
引用:丑洁明,班靖晗.2018.影响广东省热带气旋特征分析及灾害损失研究[J].大气科学
Citation:Chou Jieming,Ban Jinghan.2018.A characteristics analysis and assessment of economic damage of Tropical cyclones during 1990-2015 in Guangdong, China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      本文基于1990-2015年影响广东省热带气旋(Tropical cyclone,TC)数据,分析影响广东省TC的灾害时空特征、灾情年际变化以及灾害强度特征等。并利用灾害指标核算出灾害损失的经济价值,改进综合灾情指数模型。主要得出以下结论:26a来登陆广东省TC共93个,占总数的29.6%,其中有67个对广东省造成了人员伤亡或者经济损失;影响广东省TC频次整体随时间变化不大,强度低的TC频次随年际呈现较为明显的减少变化趋势,而强度高的TC频次呈现较为明显的逐年上升趋势;粤西与珠三角地区受TC侵袭频次明显高于粤东和粤北地区;热带气旋各项灾情指标造成的经济损失(以2015年为可比价)均在1997年出现转折,经济损失急速下滑;各项损失相对值与TC强度之间存在较好的指数正相关关系,低强度等级的热带气旋造成的综合灾情指数呈现较为明显的年际减小趋势,而高强度等级的热带气旋变化趋势不显著。
Abstract:
      Using data of Tropical cyclone in Guangdong from 1990-2015, the variation characteristics of the disasters situation caused by tropical cyclones were analyzed in this paper. The economic value of disaster loss is calculated by using disaster index, and the comprehensive disaster index model is improved. The conclusions are as follow: there are 93 TC landing in Guangdong Province during 1990-2015, accounting for 29.6% of the national landings, 67 TC of which have caused casualties or economic losses in Guangdong province; the frequency of TC has little change with time, and the TC with low-intensity shows obvious decreasing trend with the year, while the TC with high-intensity shows obvious increasing trend year by year; the TC invasion in West Guangdong and Pearl River Delta area is obviously higher than that in eastern Guangdong and northern Guangdong Province; the 2015 comparable price is used to convert the loss index, the economic losses caused by each index all have a turning point in 1997, the economic losses showed a deeply drop; there is a good exponential positive correlation between the relative loss and TC intensity, the case of low-intensity shows an obvious trend of decreasing year by year; while the decreasing trend of the case of high-intensity is not significant.
主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所 单位地址:北京市9804信箱
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