doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1707.17144
6.23江苏阜宁龙卷的高分辨快速更新同化预报与分析

High-resolution rapid refresh prediction and analysis of the Funing 6.23 tornado
摘要点击 658  全文点击 51  投稿时间:2017-03-27  修订日期:2017-06-09
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基金:  国家自然科学基金
中文关键词:  龙卷,数值预报,螺旋度,循环同化
英文关键词:  Tornado, Numerical prediction, Helicity, Rapid refresh
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
李佳Li Jia中国气象局上海台风研究所
陈葆德chen baode中国气象局上海台风研究所
张旭zhangxu中国气象局上海台风研究所
黄伟huangwei中国气象局上海台风研究所
引用:李佳,陈葆德,张旭,黄伟.2017.6.23江苏阜宁龙卷的高分辨快速更新同化预报与分析[J].大气科学
Citation:Li Jia,chen baode,zhangxu,huangwei.2017.High-resolution rapid refresh prediction and analysis of the Funing 6.23 tornado[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      基于3km水平分辨率的第二代华东快速更新循环同化预报模式系统,对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷个例预报结果进行了分析,通过螺旋度的时间演变等讨论了龙卷母体-对流单体的发展过程,并对比了有无同化的预报结果。结果表明,快速更新循环同化系统在阜宁附近模拟出了类似龙卷母体的涡旋结构,同时伴随有剧烈的上升运动,模拟的发生时间与发展过程与实况基本吻合。但模拟的涡旋发生在江苏阜宁北侧,与观测相比偏差20多公里,且最大地面风速较实况小。进一步分析表明,该对流单体从中层上升运动开始,随着上升区向上和向下发展,首先在中高空出现剧烈的上升运动,z螺旋度增大,高层辐散加强,x螺旋度增大,随后中低空的垂直运动也增强,y螺旋度增大,低层辐合增强,最后随着高层辐散和垂直运动的减弱,低层涡旋减弱并消散。14时没有进行观测资料同化预报结果中,在阜宁附近没有预报出类似的对流单体,表明逐小时循环同化对此次龙卷天气的模拟起着关键作用。
Abstract:
      By making use of the operational Shanghai Meteorological Service- WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System,a tornado occurred on June 23, 2016 in Funing county, Jiangsu Province is simulated. A tornado parent storm is identified near Funing in the model output, which occurs in area with very strong convective activity. Its development and timing are in a good agreement with the observations. But the position of the vortex is 20 km norther than observed one with weaker surface wind. Further analysis indicates that an updraft exists in the middle level prior to occurrence of the storm that extends up and down later. With significantly enhanced updraft and increased Z-helicity in the middle and upper level, X-helicity starts to increase along with intensified divergence in the upper level. Then in the low-level,updraft and convergence are strengthened, Y—helicity increased. At last with divergence and updraft in the upper level weakening, the cyclonic vortex is diminishing and dissipated. In a comparing simulation without rapid data refresh, there is no supercell storm recognized showing the key role played by hourly data assimilation in the simulation of the tornado.
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