doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1711.17178
不同类型、强度的厄尔尼诺事件对次年华南

The Possible Impact of El Ni?o Events of Different Types and intensity on the Precipitation in the Following First Flood Season in South China
摘要点击 186  全文点击 28  投稿时间:2017-06-12  修订日期:2017-11-01
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基金:  国家重点基础研究发展计划
中文关键词:  厄尔尼诺事件 类型 强度 前汛期降水 华南
英文关键词:  El Ni?o events,types,intensity ,Precipitation in the first flood season,South China
  
作者中文名作者英文名单位
伍红雨WU Hongyu广东省气候中心
引用:伍红雨.2018.不同类型、强度的厄尔尼诺事件对次年华南[J].大气科学
Citation:WU Hongyu.2018.The Possible Impact of El Ni?o Events of Different Types and intensity on the Precipitation in the Following First Flood Season in South China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      根据气象行业标准(QT/T370-2017)对厄尔尼诺事件不同类型的划分结果以及国家气候中心最新颁布的华南前汛期业务监测标准,采用1961~2016年NCEP/NCAR日、月尺度再分析大气环流资料、海表温度资料(ERSST V4)以及华南261个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,采用相关、合成等方法分析了不同类型、强度的厄尔尼诺事件特征以及与次年华南前汛期的关系,并探讨其海温和大气环流异常特征。结果表明,厄尔尼诺事件的类型、强度对次年华南前汛期降水的影响存在明显差异。中等及以上强度东部型厄尔尼诺事件次年,华南前汛期开汛早、结束晚、前汛期持续时间长,降水多;而弱等级的东部型以及中部型厄尔尼诺次年则相反。在厄尔尼诺事件次年华南前汛期,中等及以上强度东部型厄尔尼诺相对弱东部型或中部型厄尔尼诺大气环流存在明显差异。高层西风急流明显加强,中层北半球极涡加强,东亚大槽强,低层菲律宾以东存在反气旋异常环流,华南存在南北风的交汇和水汽辐合加强,有利于华南前汛期降水偏多。
Abstract:
      Based on the meteorological industry standard(QT/T370-2017)for El Ni?o events of different types and the latest monitoring standard of the first rainy season in South China issued by National Climate Center,Using the NCEP/NCAR daily and monthly reanalysis data,NOAA SST data(ERSST V4)and the precipitation data of 261 meteorological observational stations in South China from 1961 to 2016,The relationship between El Ni?o events of different types and intensity and the precipitation in the following first flood season in South China and the characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and SST are analyzed by correlation and composite analysis methods. The results show that the impact difference is obvious between different types and intensity of El Ni?o events on the precipitation in the following first flood season in South China. In East Pacific El Ni?o events with medium and above intensity the onset data of the first rainy season in South China is early, the ending date is late , the duration is long, and the precipitation is more,while in East Pacific El Ni?o events with weak intensity or Central Pacific El Ni?o events is on the contrary. The atmospheric circulation in the following first flood season in South China has obvious difference between medium and above intensity with weak East Pacific El Ni?o events or Central Pacific El Ni?o events, including westerly jet is strengthener in upper level, the polar vortex in northern hemisphere and the East Asia major deep trough are stronger, There is an anomalous anticyclone over east Philippine islands in middle-level, there is the moisture convergence area in South China where the winds of both the south and the north converge.
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