doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1712.17183
夏季中国华北降水、印度降水以及太平洋海温的耦合关系分析

A Study on the Coupling Relationship among Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Summer Rainfalls over North China and India
摘要点击 1376  全文点击 154  投稿时间:2017-06-26  修订日期:2017-09-23
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基金:  国家自然科学基金(41375064)
中文关键词:  华北夏季降水  印度夏季降水 多变量经验模态分解法 ENSO
英文关键词:  North China summer rainfall, Indian summer rainfall, ENSO, MEOF, IOD
        
作者中文名作者英文名单位
林大伟LIN Dawei中国科学院大学;中国科学大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心
布和朝鲁BUEH Cholaw中国科学大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心
谢作威XIE Zuowei中国科学大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心
引用:林大伟,布和朝鲁,谢作威.2018.夏季中国华北降水、印度降水以及太平洋海温的耦合关系分析[J].大气科学
Citation:LIN Dawei,BUEH Cholaw,XIE Zuowei.2018.A Study on the Coupling Relationship among Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Summer Rainfalls over North China and India[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      本文基于1951–2014年的站点观测资料以及再分析资料,应用多变量经验正交分解法(MEOF)研究了年际尺度上华北夏季降水、印度夏季降水与海平面温度之间的耦合关系(主要模态)。结果表明:当印度夏季降水偏强时,若同期夏季赤道中东太平洋海温表现为La Ni?a位相,则西太平洋暖池对流加强,副热带高压偏西偏北,有利于华北夏季降水与印度夏季降水一致增强。反之,当印度大部降水偏弱时,若同期夏季赤道中东太平洋海温表现为El Ni?o位相,则华北夏季降水和印度夏季降水一致减弱。然而,两地夏季降水的协同变化关系并不总是成立。当赤道中东太平洋海温异常随时间演变表现为冬春El Ni?o衰减型时,伴随着印度洋偶极子(IOD)正位相的衰减过程,这会减弱东亚夏季风,使得华北夏季降水偏少。此时印度半岛夏季降水增强区集中在其西部,无法形成连接印度和华北夏季降水异常的环半球遥相关(CGT)波列,可能使得华北夏季降水异常与全印度夏季降水异常成相反形势。这些结论揭示了中国华北夏季降水、印度夏季降水和海平面温度之间的耦合关系,有助于进一步理解海温外强迫对两地夏季降水之间相关关系的作用,从而对华北夏季降水的预测具有参考意义。
Abstract:
      Based on the 1951–2014 reanalysis data and the observational data, the coupling relationship among the summer rainfall over North China (NCSR), summer rainfall over India (ISR) and global sea surface temperature (SST) are analyzed. With the multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MEOF) method, the dominant coupling modes of among NCSR, ISR and SST have been identified. The results show that on the interannual scale there is significant coupling relationship among them. The NCSR and ISR tend to increase/decrease synchronously if the central and eastern equatorial Pacific leads the La Ni?a/El Ni?o phase in the concurrent summer. However, such a relationship between NCSR and ISR does not always hold. If the SST pattern is in the decaying phase of the El Ni?o event from the preceding winter to spring, the summer rainfall over the west of India increases but the NCSR is likely to decrease. It is accompanied by the weakening of the positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from the preceding winter, which could weaken the East Asia summer monsoon in the concurrent summer. In addition, the circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CGT) connecting ISR and NCSR was inactive, since the above-normal ISR happened mainly over the western part of India. These results would be helpful to deepen our understanding of the role SST plays in the relationship between the summer rainfalls over North China and India, thus providing some clues for the prediction of North China summer rainfall.
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