doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1802.17277
我国暴雨形成机理及预报方法研究进展

Review on the formation mechanisms and forecast methods of Torrential rain in China
摘要点击 196  全文点击 63  投稿时间:2017-11-14  修订日期:2018-01-15
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基金:  国家自然科学基金
中文关键词:  暴雨,形成机理,预报方法,研究进展
英文关键词:  Torrential, information mechnism, forecast method, progress
        
作者中文名作者英文名单位
高守亭Gao Shoutingiap
周玉淑Zhou Yushu大气所
冉令坤大气所
引用:高守亭,周玉淑,冉令坤.2018.我国暴雨形成机理及预报方法研究进展[J].大气科学
Citation:Gao Shouting,Zhou Yushu.2018.Review on the formation mechanisms and forecast methods of Torrential rain in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      分别从华南暖区暴雨、江淮流域梅雨锋暴雨、华北和东北暴雨以及暴雨预报方法等方面回顾了我国近年来在主要三大雨带的观测、数值模拟、动力机理及诊断分析和预报方法方面取得的进展,指出了华南暖区暴雨、江淮梅雨锋暴雨及华北东北暴雨研究取得的新认识,认为华南暖区暴雨的形成机理主要是发生在低空南风向北推进过程中,由海岸线及地形抬升而产生位势不稳定造成强上升运动以及由于南风低空急流向北发展时产生急流前部的辐合而发生流线分叉使低层低涡发展促进垂直运动加强或使正涡度集中促使垂直运动发展造成暴雨;江淮暴雨生成机制主要与对称不稳定、涡度场变化及β中尺度对流线有关;而华北东北暴雨过程中的非均匀饱和引起的局部湿度集中特点较为明显,中高层干冷空气入侵引起的不稳定和动量下传及高空中尺度急流增强引发的高层局地辐散增强对暴雨发生有重要作用。目前,新型探测资料已经用到暴雨研究和预报中,具有自主知识产权的GRAPES-MESO和GRAPES-GFS系统已经实现业务化,并在集合数值预报方面取得显著进步,且动力因子暴雨预报方法在很多省市气象台得到推广应用。虽然暴雨机理研究和预报已经取得以上诸方面的长足进步,但是也还存在不少问题,需要加强基于观测的暴雨中尺度系统的理论研究、数值模式动力框架和物理过程描述的改进、资料同化理论技术的发展及人工智能技术如何用到大气科学的研究和业务应用等,以期在我国暴雨中尺度系统的三维精细结构、发生发展机理和预报理论和方法研究方面取得更大进步。
Abstract:
      This paper reviews the progress in observation, numerical simulation, dynamic mechanism, diagnostic analysis and prediction methods of the three major rain belts in recent years respectively from heavy rainfall in warm South China, rainstorm caused by the Meiyu front of the Yangtze-Huaihe river basin, torrential rain in North and Northeast China and forecasting methods for rainstorm. And it indicates some new understanding of those researches on intense rainfall. First of all, It is believed that the formation mechanism of rainstorm in warm sector in South China mainly occurs during the process of low-level south wind moving forward north. Because in this procession, potential instability caused by coastline and orographic lifting can lead to strong ascending motion. Besides, on account of the northward boost of low-level south wind, the convergence in front of jet stream will make for streamline fork which benefits the development of cyclonic vortices or the concentration of positive vorticity to promote vertical motion, which generally bring about torrential rainfall. The mechanism of heavy rain over Yangzi-Hwai valley is mainly concerned with the symmetry instability, the variation of vorticity field and the β mesoscale convection line. Whereas the local concentration of humidity is more obvious due to the non-uniform saturation in process of North and Northeast China rainfall. The instability and the downward momentum transportation caused by dry and cold air in the middle and upper levels plays a significant role in rainstorm generation, as well as the enhancement of local upper-level divergence caused by the reinforce of mesoscale upper-level jet. Recently, new sounding data have been used in rainstorm research and prediction. The GRAPES-MESO and GRAPES-GFS system which possess independent intellectual property also have been operationalized, and make impressive progress in numerical ensemble prediction. In addition, the dynamic-factor approach to predict rainstorm has been popularized and applicated in many provincial and municipal observatory. Although the research and forecast of rainstorm mechanism has made great progress in all the above aspects, there are still a lot of problems. For instance, it is crucial to promote the theoretical research of meso-scale rainstorm system based on observation, the improvement of dynamic framework and description of physical process for numerical model and the development of theory and technology of data assimilation. Moreover, it should be under consideration that how to make artificial intelligence technology applied to atmospheric research and business application, in order to make some more advances in the three-dimensional fine structure, the generation and development mechanism and prediction theory of heavy rainfall mesoscale system.
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