doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1802.18110
关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化

Drying Trend in the Northern China and It’s Shift from 1951 to 2016Ma Zhuguo1,2 Fu Congbin1,2,3 Yang Qing1 Zheng Ziyan1 Li Mingxin1 Lv Meixia1
摘要点击 1294  全文点击 165  投稿时间:2018-01-18  修订日期:2018-02-03
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基金:  
中文关键词:  降水、干旱指数、陆地水储量(TWS)、南涝北旱、变化趋势
英文关键词:  drought  index, Terrestrial  Water Storage(TWS), southern  wetting and  northern drying, trend.
        
作者中文名作者英文名单位
马柱国马柱国中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室
符淙斌中国科学院大学;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室
杨庆 郑子彦 李明星 段亚雯南京大学;南京大学;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室
引用:马柱国,符淙斌,杨庆 郑子彦 李明星 段亚雯.2018.关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化[J].大气科学
Citation:马柱国.2018.Drying Trend in the Northern China and It’s Shift from 1951 to 2016Ma Zhuguo1,2 Fu Congbin1,2,3 Yang Qing1 Zheng Ziyan1 Li Mingxin1 Lv Meixia1[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      全球增暖背景下,中国区域降水发生了显著的变化。过去半个世纪,中国经历了北方的“西湿东干”和东部的“南涝北旱”的降水分布格局。那么近十几年来,这种降水长期变化的分布格局是维持还是发生了变化?本文基于年降水观测数据、自矫正的帕尔默干旱指数scPDSI和地表湿润指数SWI、GRACE(The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)卫星数据反演的陆地水储量(TWS)对中国区域干旱化问题进行了再分析。结果表明,近16年(2001-2016年)降水的分布格局正在发生转折性变化,东部地区(100oE以东)“南涝北旱”的格局正在发生显著的变化,长江中游及江淮流域已转为显著的干旱化时段,而华北地区的降水已转为增加趋势,“南旱北涝”的格局基本形成;中国北方过去的“西湿东干”型也转变为“西干东湿”型。显然,中国区域的降水格局在2001年后发生了明显的年代尺度转折性变化,两种常用干旱指数的分析也证明了这一点。但GRACE的陆地水储量(TWS)的分析却显示,最近16年来我国“南涝北旱”的格局仍未发生变化,中国北方大部分地区仍然处于干旱化的时段,且有加剧的趋势,其原因有待于进一步研究。
Abstract:
      There is a significant change in precipitation over China under global warming. From 1951 to 2000, the precipitation experienced a period of the spatial distribution of ‘western wetting and eastern drying, WWED’ in the North China and ‘southern wetting and northern drying, SWND’ in eastern China. Is the distribution pattern of long-term change of precipitation maintained or changed after 2001? Based on the observational monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, calculated self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI) and surface wetness index(SWI), the drying trend in China have reanalyzed. Results point out that there was a shift change of the wet-dry spatial distribution in China after 2001. In North China, the pattern of WWED changed into ‘western drying and eastern wetting, WDEW’, and in the Eastern China, the pattern of SDND changed into ‘southern drying and northern wetting, SDNW’ from 2001 to 2016. The central part of North China changed from a precipitation decreasing trend into a significant increasing trend in precipitation, there is a shift from a significant increasing trend in precipitation into a decreasing trend in precipitation. But according to the analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage(TWS) data of GRACE (The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), we found the wet-dry pattern of SWND in the Eastern China have not changed from 2001 to 2016, and the drying trend in he Northern China have been intensifying since 2001. This is quite the opposite of the results from precipitation, scPDSI and SWI. The reason should be studied in future.
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