doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1903.18199
人类活动对1961-2016年长江流域降水变化的可能影响

The possible effects of human activities on the trends in precipitation over the Yangtze River basin
摘要点击 446  全文点击 92  投稿时间:2018-07-24  修订日期:2018-11-13
查看HTML全文  查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
基金:  国家重点基础研究发展计划
中文关键词:  长江流域  人类影响  变化趋势  降水
英文关键词:  the Yangtze River basin, Human influence, Trends, Precipitation
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
沙祎SHA Yi中国气象科学研究院
徐影XU Ying中国气象局国家气候中心
韩振宇Han Zhenyu中国气象局国家气候中心
周波涛ZHOU Botao南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
引用:沙祎,徐影,韩振宇,周波涛.2019.人类活动对1961-2016年长江流域降水变化的可能影响[J].大气科学
Citation:SHA Yi,XU Ying,Han Zhenyu,ZHOU Botao.2019.The possible effects of human activities on the trends in precipitation over the Yangtze River basin[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      人类活动造成的温室气体浓度增加对气候变化的加剧做出了贡献,降水作为重要的气象要素和水循环组成部分,人类活动对其时空变化特征的影响也是当下研究的重要课题。本文以长江流域为例,利用1961~2016年CN05.1逐日降水数据和20世纪气候检测归因计划(C20C+D&A Project)中CAM5.1-1degree模式的逐日降水结果,分析了人类活动对长江流域年降水量及三个极端降水指数时空变化的影响。结果表明:包含人类活动及自然强迫因素的现实情景(All-Hist)的模拟结果与观测结果较为相近;All-Hist情景下的多试验集合平均结果对长江流域降水的模拟能力较为可靠。通过对比两种情景下的模拟的长江流域降水量时空变化特征发现:考虑人类活动影响后,长江流域平均降水相对于仅考虑自然强迫情景下时呈现减少趋势,且减少趋势随时间推移加剧;极端降水受人类活动的影响随时间呈现出的增加趋势有所削弱;对平均降水及极端降水变化趋势的影响存在空间差异性,其中受人类活动影响最严重的是上游中部、东南部及中下游东南部地区,均呈现减少趋势;但在长江上游西南部极端降水受人类活动影响显著增加,需要加强该区域洪涝预防工作。另外,人类活动对平均降水的减少贡献最大的时段为2000~2009年,影响最明显季节为秋冬两季;人类活动对极端降水的影响与降水的极端程度成正相关,降水极端性越强,受人类活动影响的变化程度更大,且空间分布上的差异性也更加显著。
Abstract:
      Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases caused by human activities have been contributing to climate change. Precipitation as a major meteorological element and water cycle, the impact of human activity on its spatiotemporal variation has been an important project for scientists to study. This paper takes the Yangtze river basin as an example, daily precipitation data observed from 1961 to 2016 and the daily precipitation simulation results of CAM5.1-1degree model in the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project were used to analyze the contribution of human activities to the spatial and temporal variation and trend variation of annual precipitation and three extreme precipitation indices over the Yangtze river basin. The simulation results of the factual scenario which including both anthropogenic and natural influences are close to the observation; By means of statistical method, the model simulation ability was tested, it can be concluded that the average result of multiple runs of the factual scenario is more reliable for the simulation of precipitation over the Yangtze river basin. By comparing the temporal and spatial variation under the two scenarios precipitation over the Yangtze river basin, It shows when took the impact of human activities into account, the average precipitation in the Yangtze river basin shows a decreasing trend compared with the scenarios of considering natural forcing only, and the decreasing trend has intensified over time; The increasing trend of extreme precipitation affected by human activities was also weakened over time; Spatial differences showed in the influence of average precipitation and extreme precipitation trends and percentage anomalies, the areas most affected by human activities were the upper central and southeast region and the middle and lower southeast region, all of which showed a decreasing impact, but in the southwest of the upper Yangtze river, extreme rainfall has been increased significantly by human activity, so it needs to increase the flood prevention work in the area; The biggest contributed period for the reduction of average precipitation caused by human activity is 2000~2009, and the most obviously decreasing season were autumn and winter; The impact of human activities on extreme precipitation was positively correlated with the extreme degree of precipitation. Compared with general heavy precipitation (R90p), extreme heavy precipitation (R99p) was affected by human activities with greater variation range and more significant difference in spatial distribution.
主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所 单位地址:北京市9804信箱
联系电话: 010-82995051,010-82995052传真:010-82995052 邮编:100029 Email:dqkx@mail.iap.ac.cn
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计
京ICP备09060247号