doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1812.18231
2016年7.19京津冀极端降水系统的动热力结构及不稳定条件分析

Evolution of dynamic and thermal structure and instability condition analysis of the extreme precipitation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in July 19, 2016
摘要点击 199  全文点击 112  投稿时间:2018-09-14  修订日期:2018-11-02
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基金:  国家自然科学基金
中文关键词:  暴雨 动热力系统 位势不稳定 位势散度
英文关键词:  torrentia rain,dynamic and thermal structure,potential instability ,potential divergence
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
张景Zhang jing南京信息工程大学
周玉淑Zhou Yushu
沈新勇Shen xinyong南京信息工程大学
李小凡Li Xiaofan
引用:张景,周玉淑,沈新勇,李小凡.2019.2016年7.19京津冀极端降水系统的动热力结构及不稳定条件分析[J].大气科学
Citation:Zhang jing,Zhou Yushu,Shen xinyong,Li Xiaofan.2019.Evolution of dynamic and thermal structure and instability condition analysis of the extreme precipitation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in July 19, 2016[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      利用NCEP/NCAR 的GFS再分析资料,结合中国气象局气象信息中心提供的全国自动站观测降水量、CMORPH卫星反演降水资料、FY2反演降水资料和雷达定量估测降水产品融合的降水资料,对造成2016年7月19-21日京津冀地区的极端降水的天气系统动热力结构演变以及不稳定条件进行了诊断分析,揭示了京津冀地区上空不同气压层上天气系统的配置,水汽条件,降水发生的垂直运动条件及不稳定层结演变情况。结果表明:(1)500 hPa呈现东高西低的环流形势,与700 hPa低涡和高低空急流相配合,副高北抬阻挡华北地区低涡的东移,导致低涡在京津冀地区停滞是此次降水发生的环流背景;(2)低层的低涡东移发展与中高层正涡度叠加对暴雨发生有重要作用;(3)引用位势散度分析对流不稳定度变化的原因表明,降水区后部的京津冀西南地区,低层的位势不稳定主要由位势散度的垂直风切变部分决定,代表垂直风切变和大气湿斜压的共同作用,弱降水区以及降水区后方的低层位势散度为负值,有利于该区域位势不稳定加强,强降水区及降水区前方位势散度为正值,抑制了位势不稳定发展。位势散度变化可以通过影响大气稳定度变化进而影响降水落区,位势散度的高值区对应了降水大值区,尤其是700hPa位势散度对降水落区有很好的指示作用,可以结合位势散度的变化对降水落区进行预估。
Abstract:
      The evolution of dynamic and thermal structure and instability condition analysis of extreme precipitation system in Beijing-Tianjin_Hebei we analyzed based on the analysis date from NCEP/NCAR Global Forecast System (GFS),combined with the national automatic station observation precipitation provided by the Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration, CMORPH satellite inversion precipitation data, FY2 inversion precipitation data and radar quantitative estimation of precipitation product fusion precipitation data, indicate that the configuration of weather systems in different air pressure zones over the beijing-tianjin-hebei region, vertical movement conditions of precipitation, water vapor conditions and unstable stratification evolution.The results shows:(1)The 500hPa presents a circulation situation of east high and west low, which is coordinated with the 700hPa low level vortex and high and low level jet. The subtropical high uplift blocks the east movement of low level vortex in north China, resulting in the stagnation of low level vortex in the beijing-tianjin-hebei region;(2)The development and eastward-moving of low level vortex is important to the occurrence of rainstorm;(3)In addition, the reason for exploring the change of convective instability by using potential divergence analysis shows that, precipitation area at the back of the lower potential instability is mainly decided by the vertical wind shear part, on behalf of vertical wind shear and the common role of moist baroclinic atmosphere, weak precipitation area and precipitation area behind the lower potential divergence negative, is conducive to the regional potential instability, strong precipitation area and precipitation area in front of the potential divergence for positive, inhibits the development of potential instability. The change of potential divergence can affect the precipitation region through affecting the change of atmospheric stability. The high value region of potential divergence corresponds to the high value region of precipitation, especially the 700hPa potential divergence has a good indicator effect on the precipitation region. It can be estimated by combining with the change of potential divergence.
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