违反了 PRIMARY KEY 约束 'PK_t_counter'。不能在对象 'dbo.t_counter' 中插入重复键。 语句已终止。 利用区域气候模式对我国南方百年气温和降水的动力降尺度模拟-Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation during the Last 100 Years over Southern China by a Regional Climate Model
doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16079
利用区域气候模式对我国南方百年气温和降水的动力降尺度模拟

Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation during the Last 100 Years over Southern China by a Regional Climate Model
摘要点击 493  全文点击 545  投稿时间:2016-04-18  
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基金:  国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2013CB430201,国家自然科学基金项目41575089
中文关键词:  区域气候模式  中国南方  动力降尺度  地表气温  降水
英文关键词:  Regional climate model  Southern China  Dynamical downscaling  Surface air temperature  Precipitation
     
作者中文名作者英文名单位
孔祥慧KONG Xianghui中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
毕训强BI Xunqiang中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心, 北京 100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
引用:孔祥慧,毕训强.2016.利用区域气候模式对我国南方百年气温和降水的动力降尺度模拟[J].气候与环境研究,21(6):711-724,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16079.
Citation:KONG Xianghui,BI Xunqiang.2016.Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation during the Last 100 Years over Southern China by a Regional Climate Model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(6):711-724,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16079.
中文摘要:
      本文采用NCAR的WRF3.5.1模式,以NOAA的20世纪再分析资料作为区域气候模式的初始场和侧边界场,对东亚地区进行了百年以上(1900~2010年)尺度、水平分辨率为50 km的动力降尺度数值模拟试验。通过与观测气候资料的对比,分析了驱动场(20世纪再分析资料)和区域气候模式对我国南方地区近50年(1961~2010年)气温和降水的气候平均态的模拟能力。结果表明:经过动力降尺度的区域气候模式试验结果能更好地模拟我国南方地区气温气候平均态和季节循环。WRF模式模拟的气温与观测的气温的空间相关系数均在0.97以上。年平均和夏季,WRF模式模拟的气温与观测的气温的偏差大多介于-1℃到+1℃之间。对于降水,WRF模式显著提高了我国南方降水的模拟能力。和驱动场相比,WRF模式模拟的降水与观测的偏差明显减小。夏季,WRF模式模拟的降水空间相关系数在0.5以上。由此延伸至对近百年我国南方地区三个子区域(华南地区、江淮地区和西南地区)四个时段(1914~1942年、1943~1971年、1972~2000年和2001~2010年)的分析,结果表明区域气候模式动力降尺度的结果在区域平均的气温和降水的模拟数值上与观测比较接近,夏季模拟能力有明显的提高,冬季存在气温模拟偏低的误差。对气温趋势分析表明,在20世纪40年代以后的两个时间段,区域气候模式明显提高了气温变化线性趋势的模拟性能。
Abstract:
      This study analyzes the climate simulation for the past 100 years over East Asia using the WRF-ARW (version 3.5.1) model, which is forced by the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR-v2) data. The model continuously runs from 1900 to 2010 at 50 km horizontal resolution. Climatic means and seasonal cycles from the 20CR-v2 and WRF results are compared with observations in southern China for the last 50 years(1961-2010)with a focus on annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation and mean surface air temperature and precipitation in summer and winter. Results indicate that the dynamical downscaling method can reproduce the main spatial distributions and seasonal cycles of surface air temperature and precipitation. The WRF model outperforms the 20CR-v2 in regional details due to the high-resolution topography and land-use forcing. Compared with the 20CR-v2, biases of surface air temperature and rainfall are reduced in the dynamically downscaled WRF model experiment, especially in the annual mean and in summer. The pattern correlations between observations and WRF simulation for surface air temperature and precipitation are greater than 0.97 and 0.5, respectively. Furthermore, the simulated regionally averaged temperature and precipitation are close to observations in four periods (1914-1942, 1943-1971, 1972-2000, and 2001-2010) of the past 100 years over three sub-regions (South China, Central China, and Southwest China) of southern China. The WRF model has significantly improved the simulation in summer but temperature is underestimated in winter. Compared with the 20CR-v2, the WRF model has improved the simulation of temperature trend during the last 100 years, particularly that after the 1940s.
主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所 单位地址:北京市9804信箱
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