违反了 PRIMARY KEY 约束 'PK_t_counter'。不能在对象 'dbo.t_counter' 中插入重复键。 语句已终止。 华东地区极端降水动力降尺度模拟及未来预估-Dynamical Downscaling Simulation and Projection of Extreme Precipitation over East China
doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.17169
华东地区极端降水动力降尺度模拟及未来预估

Dynamical Downscaling Simulation and Projection of Extreme Precipitation over East China
摘要点击 188  全文点击 187  投稿时间:2017-12-01  
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基金:  国家自然科学基金项目41571044,上海市气象局研究型业务专项YJ201502,中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201716
中文关键词:  中国华东  区域气候模式  动力降尺度  极端降水  气候模拟和预估
英文关键词:  East China  Regional climate model  Dynamical downscaling  Extreme precipitation  Climate simulation and projection
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
魏培培WEI Peipei上海应用技术大学, 上海 201418;上海市气候中心, 上海 200030
董广涛DONG Guangtao上海市气候中心, 上海 200030
史军SHI Jun上海应用技术大学, 上海 201418;上海市气候中心, 上海 200030
张博文ZHANG Bowen上海应用技术大学, 上海 201418;上海市气候中心, 上海 200030
引用:魏培培,董广涛,史军,张博文.2019.华东地区极端降水动力降尺度模拟及未来预估[J].气候与环境研究,24(1):86-104,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.17169.
Citation:WEI Peipei,DONG Guangtao,SHI Jun,ZHANG Bowen.2019.Dynamical Downscaling Simulation and Projection of Extreme Precipitation over East China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),24(1):86-104,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.17169.
中文摘要:
      利用CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)数据集中的全球模式IPSL-CM5A-LR及其嵌套的区域气候模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting),分别评估了模式对1981~2000中国华东区域极端降水指标的模拟能力,并讨论了RCP8.5排放情景下21世纪中期(2041~2060年)中国华东极端降水指标的变化特征。相比驱动场全球气候模式,WRF模式更好地再现了各个极端指数空间分布及各子区域降水年周期变化。在模拟区域气候特点方面,WRF模拟结果有所改进,并在弥补全球模式对小雨日过多模拟的缺陷起到了明显的作用。21世纪中期,华东区域的降水将呈现明显的极端化趋势。WRF模拟结果显示年总降雨量、年大雨日数、平均日降雨强度在华东大部分区域的增幅在20%以上;年极端降雨天数、连续5 d最大降水量的增幅在华东北部部分区域分别超过了50%和35%,同时最长续干旱日在华东区域全面增加;且变化显著的格点主要位于增加幅度较大的区域。未来华东区域会出现强降水事件和干旱事件同时增加的情况,降水呈现明显的极端化趋势,且华东北部极端化强于华东南部。
Abstract:
      Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the global model IPSL-CM5A-LR results that are included in the model output archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, this study has assessed the model ability for simulating extreme precipitation indices and analyzed possible future changes in the mid-21st century (2041-2060) under the RCP8.5 scenario over East China. Results indicate that WRF performs well in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices. Compared with IPSL-CM5A-LR model, WRF model can better reproduce the spatial distribution and annual cycle of precipitation over East China and the sub-regions. In particular, the simulation of regional features is improved in WRF and the problem in global model to overestimate light precipitation has been overcome. Prediction results show that East China will experience an obvious trend of extremeness on precipitation. WRF simulation results show that indices of annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and simple daily intensity index (SDⅡ) indices in most regions of East China will increase by more than 20%, the increases of extreme wet days (R95d) and max 5-d precipitation (Rx5day) indices in the northern part of East China will be more than 50% and 35%, and consecutive dry days (CDD) overall will increased in East China. Model grids with significant changes are mainly located in areas with large increases. There will be an extremalization in precipitation with increases in both strong precipitation and drought events, and the degree of extremalization is stronger in the north than in the south of East China.
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