违反了 PRIMARY KEY 约束 'PK_t_counter'。不能在对象 'dbo.t_counter' 中插入重复键。 语句已终止。 CMIP5模式对中国东部夏季不同强度降水气候态和年代际变化的模拟评估-Assessment of the CMIP5 model’s capability in reproducing the observed climatology and decadal changes of summer rainfall with different Intensities in the Eastern China
doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16207
CMIP5模式对中国东部夏季不同强度降水气候态和年代际变化的模拟评估

Assessment of the CMIP5 model’s capability in reproducing the observed climatology and decadal changes of summer rainfall with different Intensities in the Eastern China
摘要点击 142  全文点击 40  投稿时间:2016-11-23  修订日期:2017-08-28
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基金:  
中文关键词:  CMIP5模式  降水强度 年代际变化  模式评估
英文关键词:  CMIP5 models, Precipitation  Intensities, Decadal  variability, Model  evaluation
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
林朝晖Lin Zhaohui中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
杨笑宇Yang Xiaoyu中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京
吴成来中国科学院大学;中国科学院大学;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京
王雨曦中国科学院大学;中国科学院大学;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京
陈红中国科学院大学;中国科学院大学;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,;中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京
引用:林朝晖,杨笑宇,吴成来,王雨曦,陈红.2018.CMIP5模式对中国东部夏季不同强度降水气候态和年代际变化的模拟评估[J].气候与环境研究
Citation:Lin Zhaohui,Yang Xiaoyu.2018.Assessment of the CMIP5 model’s capability in reproducing the observed climatology and decadal changes of summer rainfall with different Intensities in the Eastern China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      本文基于东亚地区逐日降水资料(EAG),系统评估了17个CMIP5全球气候模式对中国东部1962~2005年夏季总降水量和不同强度降水(小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨)的模拟能力,随后针对1970年代末中国东部夏季降水的年代际转折,详细分析了观测和模拟的不同强度降水的年代际变化对总降水量年代际变化的贡献。比较分析结果表明,大多数CMIP5模式均能较好地模拟出中国东部降水的空间分布特征,总体说来CMIP5模式对我国华南和东北地区夏季降水的模拟能力较强,但对华北和江淮夏季降水的模拟能力则相对较弱,多模式集合平均(MME)可以较好地改善模式对中国东部夏季降水空间分布的模拟能力。从不同强度等级的降水量占总降水量的比重来看,在东北和华北地区,小雨和中雨占主导,而在华南和江淮地区,大雨和暴雨则相对更为重要。尽管模式能总体模拟出中国东部小雨、大雨和暴雨占总降水比重等的空间分布,但对中雨占比的空间分布模拟较差。总体说来,多数CMIP5模式高估了小雨、中雨的比重,低估了大雨和暴雨的比重,从而导致模式往往高估东北和华北的总降水量,而低估华南和江淮的总降水量。对于1970s末我国华北和江淮地区夏季降水存在的年代际转折,观测分析表明,大雨和暴雨雨量的年代际变化为主要贡献;仅有少数CMIP5模式能模拟出华北大雨和暴雨年代际减少的特征,进而较好地模拟出华北地区总降水的年代际变化;对于江淮区域,由于大雨和暴雨的比重被严重低估,尽管部分模式能模拟出总降水量增加的特征,但却多以小雨、中雨的变化为主。多模式集合并不能显著提高模式对不同强度降水的空间分布,尤其是年代际变化的模拟能力。
Abstract:
      Using the daily observation data (EAG), the geographical distribution of summer rainfall with different intensities (light, medium, large and heavy rainfalls, respectively) and the rainfall total over eastern China during 1962-2005 simulated by 17 CMIP5 climate models were firstly evaluated. Then the simulated decadal changes of total rainfall around the end of 1970s were compared with the observations, as well as the decadal changes of four rainfall categories with different intensities (i.e., little, medium, large and heavy rainfall) and their relative weight in the decadal change of total rainfall. We found that most of CMIP5 models can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of summer rainfall over the eastern part of China. Generally, the models perform better in South China and Northeast China, but tend to perform worse in North China and Yangtze-Huai River Basin (YHRB). It’s suggested that mutli-model ensemble (MME) technique can improve the simulated spatial distribution of summer rainfall over eastern China when compared with each individual CMIP5 model. Regarding the weight of four rainfall categories to total rainfall, it’s found that the light and medium rainfalls dominate in North China and Northeast China, while the large and heavy rainfalls contribution considerably to total rainfall in South China and YHRB. Generally, the model can reasonably simulate the spatial distribution of the ratios of light, large, and heavy rainfalls to total rainfall. However, the models cannot represent well spatial patterns of the ratio of medium rainfall to total rainfall. Generally, most of the models significantly overestimate the contributions of light and medium rainfalls to total rainfall, while underestimate the contributions from large and heavy rainfalls. This has led to the overestimation of total rainfall in North China and Northeast China and the underestimation of total rainfall in South China and YHRB. Regarding the decadal changes of total rainfall in late 1970s, the observations show that the changes of large and heavy rainfall is dominant. Only a few models can reproduce the decadal decrease of large and heave rainfalls in North China, and thus simulate well the decadal changes of total rainfall in the region. In YHRB, although some models can simulate well the decadal increase of total rainfall, they tends to simulate the contributions mostly from the changes of light and medium rainfall, which may be due to the significant underestimation of the contributions of large and heavy rainfalls in the region. Moreover, it’s further suggested that, Multi-model ensemble technique cannot significantly improve the model’s performance in simulating the spatial distributions of rainfall with different intensities, as well as their decadal changes.
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