违反了 PRIMARY KEY 约束 'PK_t_counter'。不能在对象 'dbo.t_counter' 中插入重复键。 语句已终止。 CMIP5模式对冬季北极涛动的模拟和预估-Evaluation and Projection of the Arctic OscillationBased on CMIP5 Models in winter
doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585. 2017.17019
CMIP5模式对冬季北极涛动的模拟和预估

Evaluation and Projection of the Arctic OscillationBased on CMIP5 Models in winter
摘要点击 204  全文点击 74  投稿时间:2017-02-14  最后修改时间:2017-04-26
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基金:  国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2015CB453202),公益性(气象)行业专项(GYHY201406024),国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330425)
中文关键词:  CMIP5 冬季  北极涛动 模拟和预估
英文关键词:  CMIP5 Winter  Arctic Oscillation  Simulation and  projection
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
张永瑞ZHAGN Yongrui南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 山西省气象灾害防御技术中心
李丽平LI Liping南京信息工程大学大气科学学院
靳泽辉JIN Zehui山西省五台山气象站
刘璞LIU Pu山西省预警信息发布中心
康喜KANG Xi山西省代县气象局
引用:张永瑞,李丽平,靳泽辉,刘璞,康喜.2017.CMIP5模式对冬季北极涛动的模拟和预估[J].气候与环境研究
Citation:ZHAGN Yongrui,LI Liping,JIN Zehui,LIU Pu,KANG Xi.2017.Evaluation and Projection of the Arctic OscillationBased on CMIP5 Models in winter[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CMIP5的19个模式结果,从异常模态、年代际趋势和时间变率等方面评估了CMIP5耦合模式对冬季AO的模拟能力,并对未来RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种浓度路径下AO的可能变化趋势给出了定性的预估。CMIP5模式历史试验结果显示,大多数模式都能够模拟出AO模态的基本结构,其中MPI-ESM-LR和HadGEM2-AO能较好的模拟出AO整体模态来,但是,许多模式对太平洋一侧的异常分布估计过高;虽然大部分模式都能够模拟出冬季北极涛动的异常模态,但是对中心位置、强度的模拟存在较大的偏差。模式对历史演变和时间变率的刻画方面,CMIP5模式的PC1基本能够反映出1950~1970以来的减弱趋势,但对1970年以后的增长趋势模拟并不明显,ZI序列对两个阶段的趋势均可模拟出来。大多数模式的PC1和ZI序列主要表现为正的变化趋势;有一半以上的模式对2~3a 高频周期模拟较好,但对20a左右的周期模拟较差,其中仅有CanESM2、CNRM-CM5、GFDL-ESM2G这3个模式对ZI指数的两个变化周期模拟较好。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种浓度路径下,ZI序列有显著的上升趋势,从长期趋势系数看RCP4.5路径下有14个模式呈现正的变化趋势,其中有10个模式通过了检验。RCP8.5浓度路径下,16个模式为正变化趋势,有11个模式通过了检验,集合平均结果正变化趋势较为显著。RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种浓度路径下不同时段的海平面气压变化趋势表明,ZI序列的年代际变化明显,存在三个不同的变化阶段2006-2039年、2070-2100年为两个上升阶段,2040-2069年为缓慢下降阶段。
Abstract:
      On the basis of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and CMIP5 19 model results, etc., this work examined the performance of 19 CMIP5 models in the simulation of the temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation, and estimated the future changes of AO under two typical Reprencentation Concentration Pathway scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Results show that most of the models can capture the basic structure of the AO mode, in which MPI-ESM-LR and HadGEM2-AO can better simulate the AO mode to whole, however, some models overestimate the anomalous distribution On the Pacific side. Although the bulk of the models are capable of simulating the anomalous modes of the winter Arctic Oscillation, there is a large deviation in the simulation of the central position and intensity. In the aspect of the time series and temporal variability, the PC1 of the CMIP5 models basically can reflect the weakening trend since 1950~1970, but the growth trend of the simulation after 1970 is not obvious; nevertheless, the ZI sequence can simulate the trend of the two stages. On the whole, most of the PC1 and ZI sequences in 1950~2005 show positive trend. More than half of the CMIP5 models are good for high frequency band with 2~3a, however, the 20a quasi-periodic is poor, of which the ZI cycle inversion of only CanESM2, CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-ESM2G is better. It is suggested that the ZI sequences show a significant upward trend under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and the interdecadal variation is obvious, existing three different stages of 2006-2039, 2070-2001 for two rising phases, 2040-2069 for the slow descent phase. A majority of simulation results reveal a positive trend, of which more then 10 out of the 19 CMIP5 models have passed the test in both concentration scenarios.
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