违反了 PRIMARY KEY 约束 'PK_t_counter'。不能在对象 'dbo.t_counter' 中插入重复键。 语句已终止。 基于短时强降水特征的北京暴雨蓝色预警指标研究-Study on Blue Rainstorm Warning Index Based on the Characteristics of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in Beijing
doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17089
基于短时强降水特征的北京暴雨蓝色预警指标研究

Study on Blue Rainstorm Warning Index Based on the Characteristics of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in Beijing
摘要点击 24  全文点击 17  投稿时间:2017-06-17  最后修改时间:2017-09-28
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基金:  省自然科学基金
中文关键词:  强降水  自动气象站 暴雨  预警指标
英文关键词:  Severe  Rainfall, Automatic  Weather Station, Rainstorm Warning Index
                    
作者中文名作者英文名单位
李林Li Lin中国气象局北京城市气象研究所;北京市气象探测中心
张子曰Zhang Ziyue北京市气象局
范雪波Fan Xuebo北京市气象探测中心
张玮Zhang Wei北京市气象局
韦涛Wei Tao北京市气象探测中心
张治国Zhang Zhiguo北京市气象探测中心
孙雪琪Sun Xueqi北京市气象探测中心
引用:李林,张子曰,范雪波,张玮,韦涛,张治国,孙雪琪..基于短时强降水特征的北京暴雨蓝色预警指标研究[J].气候与环境研究
Citation:Li Lin,Zhang Ziyue,Fan Xuebo,Zhang Wei,Wei Tao,Zhang Zhiguo,Sun Xueqi..Study on Blue Rainstorm Warning Index Based on the Characteristics of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      选取北京2013~2015年6~9月共362个自动气象站的逐分钟降雨资料进行统计,分析北京夏季短时强降水的特征,并进行蓝色暴雨预警指标的选取。结果表明:(1)蓝色暴雨预警降雨样本中的5min、10min最大降水量约为其它降雨样本的5倍,而蓝色暴雨预警降雨样本中在达到预警标准后有5min、10min的最大雨强也有显著降低;(2)资料中有63.0%的蓝色暴雨预警降雨样本达到预警的时间不超过60 min,18时至01时的蓝色预警降雨样本占全部蓝色预警降雨样本的60%;(3)分钟雨强统计在暴雨蓝色预警中可有较好的提前指示作用,如当5min降水量达到7.7mm发出预警,则有关提前时效为16.7min,HSS评分可达0.503。
Abstract:
      Based on minute rainfall data of 362 automatic weather stations from June to September between 2013 and 2015 in Beijing, we analyze the characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in summer, and propose a blue rainstorm warning(BRW) index. It shows that: (1) The maximum rainfall intensity in 5 minutes and 10 minutes during BRW events (An event that meet the BRW criterion), is about 5 times of events that don’t. Rainfall intensity after meeting BRW criterion decreases significantly; (2) 63.0% of BRW events meet the criterion no more than 60 min after rain begins. BRW events that start from 18:00 to 01:00 count for 60% of overall BRW events; (3) High minute rainfall intensity can be a good index for BRW. If we issue a BRW when 5 min rainfall reaches 7.7mm, the lead time will be 16.7 min with HSS score up to 0.503.
主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所 单位地址:北京市9804信箱
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