违反了 PRIMARY KEY 约束 'PK_t_counter'。不能在对象 'dbo.t_counter' 中插入重复键。 语句已终止。 基于1873年以来器测气温的二十四节气气候变化-Climatic Changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms based on Temperature Observations back to 1873
doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.18044
基于1873年以来器测气温的二十四节气气候变化

Climatic Changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms based on Temperature Observations back to 1873
摘要点击 460  全文点击 159  投稿时间:2018-03-16  修订日期:2018-05-16
查看HTML全文   下载PDF   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
基金:  国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600404、2017YFC1501801)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(41675093)、中国科学院国际合作局项目(134111KYSB20160010)、中国科学院青年创新促进会(2016075)、江苏省气候变化协同创新中心
中文关键词:  二十四节气 气候变化 极端气温 多年代际变率 集合经验模分解
英文关键词:  Twenty-four Solar Terms, climate change, extreme temperature, multi-decadal variability, EEMD
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
钱诚中国科学院大气物理研究所; 中国科学院大学
严中伟中国科学院大气物理研究所; 中国科学院大学
曹丽娟中国气象局国家气象信息中心
李珍中国科学院大气物理研究所
引用:钱诚,严中伟,曹丽娟,李珍..基于1873年以来器测气温的二十四节气气候变化[J].气候与环境研究
Citation:..Climatic Changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms based on Temperature Observations back to 1873[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      2000多年来二十四节气已广泛用于指导人们生产和生活。然而传统二十四节气的应用意义在当前全球变暖背景下正在发生变化。气候学二十四节气的提出赋予了二十四节气动态变化的内涵,有利于更好地发挥其现实指导作用。本文利用北京观象台(1940~2017年)和上海徐家汇站(1873~2017年)均一化的逐日气温观测序列,分析了近百余年二十四节气气候变化特征。结果显示,北京1941~2016年和上海1874~2016年的年平均气温和二十四节气气温都呈现变暖趋势,导致早春到初夏阶段的气候学节气呈现提前的趋势,而夏末到初冬阶段的节气呈现推迟的趋势;这些趋势大部分是统计显著的。北京和上海的极端冷事件(以大寒标准定义)均呈现显著的减少趋势,上海的极端热事件(以大暑标准定义)呈现显著的增多趋势。除了长期趋势之外,上海极端热事件频数和夏季平均气温演变中都存在明显的60~80年周期的多年代际变率,和北大西洋多年代际振荡相关。相比以往基于1960年以来的观测所做的二十四节气气候趋势分析,本文揭示了更完善的长期气候变化特征,有助于从精细化的季节循环演变角度丰富关于近代中国气候变暖的认识,为适应气候变化提供科学基础。
Abstract:
      Twenty-four Solar Terms (24STs) have been widely used for guiding human activities in China over more than 2000 years. However, the implication of the conventional 24STs has been changing under global warming. Climatic 24STs proposed recently impose a time-varying characteristics on the conventional 24STs, thus they can better serve as guidance for people under current situation. Previous studies only focused on linear trend since 1960, in this study, climatic changes in the 24STs back to 1873 were analyzed based on homogenized daily temperature series at Beijing station for the period 1940–2017 and at Shanghai station for the period 1873–2017. The results show that annual mean temperature as well as the temperature in 24STs at Beijing station for the period 1941–2016 and at Shanghai station for the period 1874–2016 all show warming trends, thus resulting in advancing trends in the timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming stage (around spring) in the seasonal cycle, while delaying trends for those during the cooling stage (around autumn). Most of these trends are statistically significant. The occurrence of extreme cold day at both Beijing and Shanghai station show a significantly decreasing trend, whereas the occurrence of extreme hot day at Shanghai station shows a significantly increasing trend. In addition to the long-term trend, there are apparent multi-decadal variability with a period of 60–80 years, which is correlated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, in both the occurrence of extreme hot day and summer temperature at Shanghai station. These results can provide an important scientific base for climate change adaptation and can benefit the understanding of modern climatic warming in China from a perspective of fine evolution of the seasonal cycle.
主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所 单位地址:北京市9804信箱
联系电话: 010-82995048,010-82995049传真:010-82995048 邮编:100029 Email:qhhj@mail.iap.ac.cn
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计
京ICP备09060247号